President Trump to Upend the World Order… Again?

The Munich Security Conference opens Friday under a cloud of uncertainty that few in Europe can ignore.

For decades, the annual gathering in Bavaria symbolized the strength of the trans-Atlantic alliance. In 2026, it has become something else entirely: a stress test for a world order many leaders fear is coming apart.

European officials will arrive still shaken by the political aftershocks of the recent Greenland crisis. Behind closed doors, a blunt question is dominating conversations: Is Donald Trump, now in his second term as president, preparing to tear down the post–World War II system the United States once built?

Last year’s conference marked a turning point.

Then–Vice President JD Vance stunned European leaders with a fiery speech accusing them of stifling free speech and losing control of migration. The address sent shockwaves through Berlin, Paris, and Brussels. Diplomats privately described it as a warning shot from a White House fully committed to “America First.”

This year, the atmosphere is even more tense.

The U.S. delegation will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, joined by more than 50 members of Congress. Among them: progressive firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

What Rubio says—and what he avoids saying—may define the future of U.S.-European relations.

The newly released Munich Security Report 2026 did not mince words.

It warned the world has entered an age of “wrecking ball politics” and singled out Trump as its most powerful driver.

“Ironically, the president of the United States—the country that did more than any other to shape the post-1945 international order—is now the most prominent of the demolition men,” the report stated.

The authors argued that Trump’s revived “America First” doctrine favors unilateral pressure over alliances, deals over institutions, and leverage over loyalty. In their view, that shift has weakened confidence in U.S. leadership while emboldening rivals like Russia and China.

Veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, who chairs the conference, acknowledged what many European leaders have been reluctant to say publicly.

“At the moment, trans-Atlantic relations are, in my view, in a considerable crisis of trust and credibility,” Ischinger said this week.

Still, he called the large American delegation “encouraging,” a sign that Washington has not completely turned its back on Europe.

Trump’s repeated attacks on NATO remain one of Europe’s deepest anxieties.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker attempted to calm nerves, insisting Trump is “not trying to dismantle NATO.”

But actions speak louder than assurances.

In 2025, NATO members agreed to raise combined defense and security spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035. Many European officials privately admit the move was driven largely by Trump’s relentless pressure campaign.

Former MI6 chief MI6 leader Sir Alex Younger defended the push, arguing the alliance had grown unbalanced.

“You’ve got a continent of 500 million asking a continent of 300 million to deal with a continent of 140 million,” he said. “It’s the wrong way around.”

Still, Trump’s rhetoric has rattled allies. His recent false claim that NATO troops stayed “a little off the front lines” during the Afghanistan war sparked outrage across Europe. His repeated questioning of NATO’s mutual defense guarantee has revived fears that U.S. protection now comes with conditions—or could disappear altogether.

French President Emmanuel Macron delivered one of the starkest messages ahead of the conference.

Europe, he said, must start acting like a global “power.”

Pointing to threats from China and Russia, and growing doubts about American reliability, Macron urged the European Union to rethink its assumptions about defense, economics, and sovereignty. He renewed calls for shared EU debt to fund defense, clean energy, and artificial intelligence.

He also cautioned against complacency after the Greenland crisis.

“Don’t believe for a single second that it’s over,” Macron warned. “There are threats, intimidation, and then people relax. That’s how you lose.”

Trump’s position on the war between Russia and Ukraine has become one of the most unpredictable elements of his presidency.

Once criticized for delaying aid to Kyiv, Trump now claims he is personally driving a peace deal and says the two sides are “reasonably close.” Several rounds of talks have taken place, with another expected next week in Miami. So far, no breakthrough has emerged.

Allies are uneasy. Some fear Trump is pursuing a transactional exit rather than a durable peace, leaving Europe to manage the fallout.

As delegates gather in Munich, the debate is no longer about whether the trans-Atlantic alliance is strained.

It is about how much strain it can survive.

Trump’s second term has injected volatility into institutions built on predictability. Allies are quietly preparing for a future in which U.S. leadership is conditional, negotiable, and subject to sudden reversal.

Whether Washington ultimately stabilizes the system—or accelerates its collapse—may hinge on decisions made in the months ahead.

For now, one thing is clear: the postwar world order is no longer guaranteed.