Could Joe Biden have Beaten Donald Trump?

The 2024 election has left many questioning whether President Joe Biden, had he stayed in the race, would have performed better than Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump.

While it’s impossible to say for certain, several key factors suggest that Biden, despite his challenges, might have had a stronger chance.

Biden’s Familiarity with the Voters

Biden had built a long and recognizable political brand over five decades, allowing him to connect with a wide range of voters. His experience and position as a known quantity meant that many voters already understood what he stood for.

He didn’t need to introduce himself to the electorate in the way Harris did, especially after her rushed and uneven campaign. His candidacy also benefitted from the sense of stability and experience that older, union, and blue-collar voters valued, especially in critical swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Harris Struggled to Build a Clear Identity

On the other hand, Harris entered the race as an unproven candidate. While she had experience as a senator and vice president, her political career had been defined by inconsistent messaging and a lack of clear policy leadership.

Her presidential campaign in 2020 faltered early, and in 2024, she faced the challenge of quickly positioning herself as a viable alternative to Trump, with very little time to do so. Without a strong personal brand and with voters still unsure of her political identity, Harris had a much steeper hill to climb.

Voter Concerns About Age and Leadership

Another significant challenge for Biden was the concern over his age and whether he could successfully serve another term. His debate performance in June of 2024 raised questions about his cognitive sharpness, which only intensified after his exit from the race.

Had Biden stayed in, the ongoing concerns about his fitness for office may have hurt him in the long run, particularly against a challenger like Trump, who made no secret of his disdain for Biden’s age.

Electoral Data: Biden vs. Harris

Polling and exit polls suggest that Biden may have performed better in crucial states. Biden’s support among union workers was particularly strong, and these voters, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, were key to his success in 2020.

Harris, in contrast, struggled to win over this base, with unions like the Teamsters declining to endorse a candidate for the first time in decades. This was especially evident in battleground states, where voters traditionally aligned with the working class felt disconnected from her campaign.

The Impact of Timing and Media Strategy

Timing was another critical factor. Harris, who was thrust into the race late in the game, had very little time to make a mark before voters went to the polls. Her media blitz in September—including interviews with popular shows like The View and Call Her Daddy—was seen by some as an attempt to overcome the lack of a clear vision or message. However, this effort came too late to shift the momentum, especially as Trump had already solidified his brand.

In contrast, Biden’s well-established media presence and political resume meant he would not have had to scramble to present himself in the way Harris did. His familiarity with voters allowed him to focus more on policy than personality.

In the End: A Missed Opportunity

Ultimately, Biden’s exit from the race was a loss for the Democrats. Many political analysts, including Steven Schier, a political scientist, argue that Biden would have had a better chance than Harris against Trump, particularly in key states like Pennsylvania. His ability to connect with union workers and men, two crucial groups that Harris struggled with, could have made a significant difference in the outcome. However, the unanswered question remains whether Biden, at 81 years old, could have kept his campaign competitive amid growing concerns about his age and health.

The truth is that the 2024 election’s outcome is a complex blend of timing, political dynamics, and personal performance. While Biden might have had a better shot than Harris, the Democratic Party’s internal struggles—and the decision to let him bow out late in the race—have left the party reeling, with Trump set to secure another four years in the White House.

Trump didn’t just win. He crushed it, flipping Pennsylvania back into the red column—after Biden’s victory in 2020—while sweeping through battleground states like Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. His triumph in the Great Lakes states shattered the Democrats’ so-called “blue wall,” and now, Trump is poised to reclaim the White House. Arizona and Nevada still hang in the balance, but Trump’s lead there suggests a clean sweep of the key states.

Biden’s Failures Exposed: A Shaky Legacy

While Trump celebrates, Biden is left licking his wounds, having to face the bitter truth that his party orchestrated his downfall. Party insiders had long been quietly working behind the scenes to push Biden out of the race, despite his claims that he was the best person to take on Trump. The internal backstabbing, now exposed, will remain a painful chapter for the Democrats.

“The deposing of Biden will remain a great source of controversy within the Democratic Party,” says Steven Schier, a political scientist. “Even with his cognitive struggles, Biden would’ve had a better chance in Pennsylvania than Harris.”

Indeed, the choice to push Biden aside was a disastrous one. The Democrats handed Trump a huge gift, letting him reignite his appeal in key battleground states. Pennsylvania, which was pivotal in Trump’s 2016 victory, flipped back to red. This time, it was Harris’ inability to connect with voters that sealed the deal for Trump.

Trump’s Victory: A Historic Blow to Democrats

Trump’s win wasn’t just about battleground states. His 2024 performance mirrors the stunning success he achieved in 2016, defying predictions once again. For the first time since George W. Bush in 2004, a Republican presidential candidate looks set to win the popular vote as well. With more than 71.8 million votes and counting, Trump is outpacing Kamala Harris by a wide margin—nearly 5 million more votes than her.

Trump has shown that even the so-called blue states—long thought to be safely in the Democratic camp—are no longer off-limits. In Virginia, Harris won by a razor-thin 5.2% margin, a far cry from Biden’s 10.1% victory in 2020. Meanwhile, New Jersey, a state that Biden won by nearly 16% in 2020, saw Harris squeak by with just a 6-point win. This is a major red flag for a party that once believed these states were secure.

Harris: A Candidate Without a Clear Path

Kamala Harris, for all the fanfare of her ascension to the top of the ticket, failed to win over voters when it mattered most. Her campaign was plagued with inexperience and a lack of clear messaging. “Voters didn’t know who Kamala Harris was,” says veteran Republican strategist Carter Wrenn. “They saw Trump as the person who would solve the country’s problems, and they were right.”

Harris failed to garner support from crucial voter groups, including unions and men—two key demographics that played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory. While Biden’s relationship with organized labor had been solid throughout his presidency, Harris was rejected by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which refused to endorse any candidate for the first time in decades.

Biden’s Promises vs. Reality

Biden’s departure from the race, as he stepped aside for Harris, raises critical questions: Could he have defeated Trump again? It’s impossible to know for sure, but the timing of his exit was nothing short of disastrous for his party. Biden had insisted that he was the best candidate to beat Trump. In fact, just days before pulling out, he declared, “I wouldn’t be running again if I didn’t absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump in 2024.”

However, Democrats’ loss of faith in Biden was undeniable. The party had grown weary of his age and inability to connect with key voter blocks. Had Biden stayed in, he would have faced a much tougher battle. According to Michael DuHaime, a Republican strategist, “Biden should have left earlier, but by staying too long, he left Harris with too much to handle.”

Harris: An Unproven Leader

Harris, meanwhile, entered the race with only 107 days to establish herself, which was never enough time. In contrast, Trump already had a defined brand—one that voters trusted, even after four years of media smears and false accusations. Harris struggled from day one to define herself, and by the time voters were paying attention, it was already too late.

“The Democratic coalition was fractured going into the race, and Harris only managed to bring it together in fits and starts,” Schier observes. “It wasn’t a strong showing—just a desperate attempt to salvage a failing campaign.”

Even with her media blitz in September, where she appeared on popular talk shows and podcasts, Harris failed to make a lasting impression. Voters remained unimpressed with her, and in the end, it was Trump who seemed like the more competent leader, despite his flaws.

The Trump Effect: Reshaping America’s Political Future

As Trump prepares for a second term, Democrats are left to pick up the pieces of their shattered political dreams. Their inability to unite behind a solid candidate, the infighting that led to Biden’s premature exit, and the missteps of Harris on the campaign trail have all but ensured that Trump’s comeback is one for the ages.

“Democrats made a huge mistake when they pushed Biden aside,” says DuHaime. “The real error wasn’t in Biden stepping down, but in how they handled it. They didn’t give Harris a fair shot, and now they’ll have to live with the consequences.”

Trump’s Victory: A Message to the Left

In the end, what remains clear is that Trump’s return to the White House is more than just a political victory—it’s a resounding rejection of the Democrat’s failed leadership. As the nation braces for another four years under Trump’s watch, the message from voters is loud and clear: America is ready for leadership, not chaos.

And as for Harris? Her brief moment at the top only serves as a reminder that a Democrat-led White House is anything but certain—and that, perhaps, the Democrats’ real problem isn’t Trump, but the absence of a leader who can unite their fractured party.