Golden Gate Bridge at Risk of ‘Catastrophic’ Collapse?

A new federal report is raising alarms about the safety of California’s most iconic bridges — and it’s not just bureaucratic noise. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is warning that seven major bridges across the Golden State, including San Francisco’s famed Golden Gate Bridge and San Diego’s Coronado Bridge, could be one ship strike away from total disaster.

The warning comes exactly one year after Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge crumbled into the Patapsco River in just 25 seconds — killing six construction workers — after being hit by a cargo ship that lost power. The tragedy has triggered a coast-to-coast reassessment of America’s aging infrastructure.

Now the NTSB has flagged 68 U.S. bridges — including seven in California — as having “unknown levels of risk” when it comes to being hit by massive ocean-going vessels. Translation: Nobody knows if they’ll hold up in a crash, and many haven’t even been checked.

Golden Gate Under Review — But “In Compliance”

The Golden Gate Bridge may be one of America’s most photographed landmarks, but it’s also a potential danger zone. Officials from the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District claim the bridge is already equipped with “one of the most robust ship collision protection systems of any bridge on the West Coast.”

Still, they’ve hired outside experts to study the bridge’s vulnerable south tower, with results headed to the Federal Highway Administration.

“It’s smart to assess every bridge. The risk may be low, but it’s not zero,” said John Goodwin, spokesperson for the Bay Area Toll Authority. His agency has been working with Caltrans since July to assess vessel traffic under all state-owned toll bridges.

California Bridges on the Hot List

Six of the bridges identified in the report span Bay Area waterways:

• Golden Gate Bridge
• Richmond-San Rafael Bridge
• Carquinez Bridge
• Benicia-Martinez Bridge
• Antioch Bridge
• San Mateo-Hayward Bridge

The seventh — the Coronado Bridge — connects San Diego to Coronado Island and sees heavy Navy and cargo traffic.

Caltrans Claims Retrofits, But Feds Say That’s Not Enough

Caltrans, the agency responsible for California’s state-owned bridges, said in a statement: “All state-owned bridges are regularly inspected… and have been seismically retrofitted to the highest national standards.” But the NTSB says that earthquake protection isn’t the same as vessel impact protection.

The report urges bridge owners to follow guidelines from the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), originally issued back in 1991 — after another deadly bridge collapse in Florida. But here’s the kicker: those rules don’t apply retroactively.

That means most bridges built before 1991 — like the Golden Gate (1937) and many others from the 1950s–70s — were never required to assess their vulnerability to ship strikes.

Baltimore Tragedy Shows the Cost of Inaction

In the wake of the Baltimore disaster, it’s clear the warning signs were there — and ignored. The NTSB says the Francis Scott Key Bridge was 30 times above the acceptable risk threshold — but no one knew, because no one checked.

“If an assessment had been done based on modern ship traffic, they could have reduced the risk and saved lives,” the agency said in its report.

Structural engineering expert Robert Dowell from San Diego State University is now calling for mandatory reassessments of every single major bridge — including those already studied.

“If the review is older than a year, I’d redo it,” Dowell said. “And if it shows upgrades are needed, those should be mandatory — no question.”

Dowell also warned that modern cargo ships are much larger than those seen decades ago, with wider decks and higher bows that can still collide with bridge columns even if basic fender systems are in place.

Big Plans for the Bay Bridge — But What About the Rest?

Interestingly, the busy San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge was not flagged in the NTSB report. That’s because it’s already in the middle of a $100 million upgrade. Its fenders — which absorbed blows from ship crashes in 2007 and 2013 — will be replaced with rubber-based designs that better absorb high-impact collisions.

But experts say the rest of California’s aging bridges may not be so lucky. With cargo ships getting bigger and traffic increasing, the threat is only growing.

What Comes Next? Bureaucracy or Bold Action?

The NTSB wants the Federal Highway Administration to join forces with the Coast Guard and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help local bridge owners assess and reinforce vulnerable structures. But without mandatory enforcement, many fear the warnings will go ignored — again.

“We can’t wait for another tragedy to act,” Dowell warned. “We have the data. We have the guidelines. The question is: Do we have the will?”

One year after Baltimore’s heartbreak, California — and the nation — may be running out of time.