Sen. Mitch McConnell has now been away from the Senate for roughly 80 days, but despite growing questions about his health and political future, bettors are increasingly convinced the longtime Kentucky Republican is not going anywhere.
The 84-year-old senator’s odds of resigning before the Nov. 3 midterm elections have plunged to just 7 percent on prediction market Kalshi, where millions of dollars have reportedly been wagered on whether McConnell will remain in office through Election Day.
That is a dramatic turnaround from earlier this year.
In February, bettors put McConnell’s chances of stepping down at nearly 49 percent after he was hospitalized in the Washington, D.C., area with flu-like symptoms.
His resignation odds shot up again over the summer as another health scare kept him away from Capitol Hill for weeks.
By July 7, the market gave McConnell a 34.8 percent chance of leaving office after he was hospitalized and little information about his condition had been made public.
But those odds quickly fell.
On July 12, McConnell released a photograph showing him smiling while recovering, a move that appeared to reassure bettors that he planned to remain in office despite concerns surrounding his health.
His resignation odds dropped to 12.3 percent shortly afterward and have continued falling ever since, hitting a low of just 6 percent on Aug. 25.
The extraordinary absence has fueled questions in Washington because McConnell has still not returned to work or been seen speaking publicly on camera.
His office has released several updates, but critics say those statements have done little to quiet speculation.
McConnell’s staff has said he did not suffer a heart attack or stroke. That denial came despite reports that a June 14 emergency call referenced cardiac arrest.
His office initially said McConnell was hospitalized after suffering a fall that left him “briefly unconscious.” He later dealt with what his staff described as a mild case of pneumonia while recovering.
McConnell was eventually released from both the hospital and a rehabilitation facility.
But he has yet to return to Capitol Hill.
The last time television cameras captured McConnell at the Senate was in early June, when he took part in a marathon voting session.
C-SPAN footage showed the veteran lawmaker sitting quietly for long stretches as senators around him talked and moved about the chamber. McConnell, who has used a wheelchair at times, appeared to move very little apart from occasionally raising his hand to vote.
Since then, the public has heard almost nothing directly from him.
Republican commentator Scott Jennings has said he has spoken with McConnell about policy, while the senator’s office has released several statements attributed to him.
McConnell has also released photographs showing him smiling alongside his wife, Elaine Chao, while recovering.
Still, his prolonged disappearance from the Senate floor has kept questions about his future alive.
McConnell has represented Kentucky in the U.S. Senate since 1985, making him one of the longest-serving senators in American history.
Health concerns have followed him increasingly closely in recent years.
Since 2023, McConnell has suffered several falls and experienced highly publicized episodes in which he appeared to freeze while speaking to reporters.
Yet if the betting markets are right, McConnell may have no intention of ending his historic Senate career early.
Despite an 80-day absence and months of speculation, bettors now appear to believe the veteran Republican will remain in office through the midterms.
Discover more from Red News Nation
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
This is beginning to look more and more like a Joe Biden repeat, except in the other political party.
Has this been a long time? Yes. But let’s consider how long supreme leader (the son of the old one) of Iran has been mIa. He’s never been seen in public since he was named leader. But Dems don’t seem to be concerned about that.